Winter 2025–26: Flu & Other Respiratory Viruses. Bad Flu Season coming?

Information for people living with aspergillosis (ABPA, CPA and related conditions)

What the evidence says right now

Signals pointing to a tougher flu season

• Southern Hemisphere “preview.” Australia saw higher-than-usual flu notifications in early 2025 compared with 2024, which often foreshadows a busier winter in the UK and Europe. That doesn’t guarantee the same for us, but it’s a warning sign. ausvaxsafety.org.au

  • By September 2025 the numbers of cases in Australia had reached similar levels to those seen in 2024 www.health.gov.au

• Co-circulation of viruses. In recent winters, influenza, RSV and COVID-19 have circulated together, increasing pressure on people at risk and on health services. WHO continues to flag this pattern in seasonal updates. World Health Organization

• UK picture (late Sept 2025). UKHSA reports flu and COVID-19 at baseline/low levels for now. Activity can rise quickly as weather cools and schools/universities return. GOV.UK

• Vaccine effectiveness (VE). Last season’s European interim VE against influenza A was ~32–53%, which is moderate—helpful at preventing severe illness and hospitalisation, especially in higher-risk groups. Effectiveness varies by age, strain and match. PMC

• Timing. After Southern Hemisphere signals and based on past seasons, an earlier start (late Oct–Nov) with a Dec–Jan peak is plausible, though not certain. Local surveillance will confirm if that pattern emerges.

Why forecasts are uncertain (and what can improve outcomes)

• Vaccine uptake. Higher uptake = smaller peaks and fewer hospitalisations. GOV.UK

• Strain match. If circulating strains stay close to vaccine strains, protection is better; drift reduces it. PMC

• Public behaviour. Ventilation, masks in crowded indoor spaces, and staying home when unwell still reduce spread. NHS Covid

• Population immunity & health-system readiness. Recent infections and prior vaccines help; NHS readiness also matters.

What this means if you have aspergillosis

People with ABPA/CPA or bronchiectasis can have more severe or longer-lasting symptoms from flu, RSV, or COVID-19. Practical steps:

• Get your vaccines when invited.

  • Flu vaccine (annual) and the autumn COVID-19 dose if you’re eligible. These don’t eliminate risk but reduce severe illness and hospitalisation. Flu  Covid

• Act early if you become unwell.

  • Watch for fever, sore throat, cough, breathlessness, increased sputum, chest pain, or a fall in home SpO₂. NHS Covid  NHS Flu

  • Seek medical advice promptly—early antivirals (for COVID-19, and occasionally for flu in high-risk people) are time-sensitive.

• Keep your baseline care tight.

  • Continue airway clearance, inhalers/other prescribed medicines, and your personalised action plan.

  • Ask about a rescue plan (who to call, when to test, when to increase treatments).

• Reduce exposure where you can.

  • Improve ventilation, avoid poorly ventilated crowded spaces during peaks, consider masking indoors when rates rise, and hand hygiene.

Bottom line

• Many experts anticipate a busier-than-average flu season in the UK/Europe this winter, but outcomes are not fixed. What we each do—vaccination, early help if ill, and sensible precautions—can make a big difference.