Winter 2025–26: Flu & Other Respiratory Viruses. Bad Flu Season coming?

Information for people living with aspergillosis (ABPA, CPA and related conditions)

What the evidence says right now

Southern Hemisphere “preview.” Australia saw higher-than-usual flu notifications in early 2025 compared with 2024, which often foreshadows a busier winter in the UK and Europe. That doesn’t guarantee the same for us, but it’s a warning sign. ausvaxsafety.org.au
- By September 2025 the numbers of cases in Australia had reached similar levels to those seen in 2024 www.health.gov.au
Co-circulation of viruses. In recent winters, influenza, RSV and COVID-19 have circulated together, increasing pressure on people at risk and on health services. WHO continues to flag this pattern in seasonal updates. World Health Organization
UK picture (late Sept 2025). UKHSA reports flu and COVID-19 at baseline/low levels for now. Activity can rise quickly as weather cools and schools/universities return. GOV.UK
Vaccine effectiveness (VE). Last season’s European interim VE against influenza A was ~32–53%, which is moderate—helpful at preventing severe illness and hospitalisation, especially in higher-risk groups. Effectiveness varies by age, strain and match. PMC
Timing. After Southern Hemisphere signals and based on past seasons, an earlier start (late Oct–Nov) with a Dec–Jan peak is plausible, though not certain. Local surveillance will confirm if that pattern emerges.

Vaccine uptake. Higher uptake = smaller peaks and fewer hospitalisations. GOV.UK
Strain match. If circulating strains stay close to vaccine strains, protection is better; drift reduces it. PMC
Public behaviour. Ventilation, masks in crowded indoor spaces, and staying home when unwell still reduce spread. NHS Covid
Population immunity & health-system readiness. Recent infections and prior vaccines help; NHS readiness also matters.

People with ABPA/CPA or bronchiectasis can have more severe or longer-lasting symptoms from flu, RSV, or COVID-19. Practical steps:

Get your vaccines when invited.
- Flu vaccine (annual) and the autumn COVID-19 dose if you’re eligible. These don’t eliminate risk but reduce severe illness and hospitalisation. Flu Covid
Act early if you become unwell.
- Watch for fever, sore throat, cough, breathlessness, increased sputum, chest pain, or a fall in home SpO₂. NHS Covid NHS Flu
- Seek medical advice promptly—early antivirals (for COVID-19, and occasionally for flu in high-risk people) are time-sensitive.
Keep your baseline care tight.
- Continue airway clearance, inhalers/other prescribed medicines, and your personalised action plan.
- Ask about a rescue plan (who to call, when to test, when to increase treatments).
Reduce exposure where you can.
- Improve ventilation, avoid poorly ventilated crowded spaces during peaks, consider masking indoors when rates rise, and hand hygiene.

Many experts anticipate a busier-than-average flu season in the UK/Europe this winter, but outcomes are not fixed. What we each do—vaccination, early help if ill, and sensible precautions—can make a big difference.